EAST COUNTY FEARLESS FORECASTER – Week 5

EAST COUNTY FEARLESS FORECASTER – WEEK 5

By Ramon Scott
EastCountySports.com

The fifth Friday of the season brings East County football its most revealing collection of games yet.

At Hart Stadium, No. 12 Helix gets an opportunity to prove its three-game recovery has prepared the Highlanders for No. 2 Cathedral Catholic, one of the county’s traditional measuring sticks.

At Granite Hills Stadium, No. 3 Granite Hills must follow its dramatic victory over previously top-ranked Mission Hills by reversing last season’s 49-42 loss to a dangerous Los Alamitos team whose 0-4 record conceals a demanding Southern Section schedule.

The week’s largest off-field development belongs to No. 23 Valhalla. Two dominant victories were converted into forfeits, changing the Norsemen’s official record from 3-0 to 1-2.

According to the San Diego Union-Tribune, a Valhalla spokesperson said the school had been informed that the player involved was cleared before later being told he was ineligible. That situation deserves acknowledgment, but it does not need to overwhelm the football discussion: Valhalla has outscored its three opponents 197-6 on the field and should remain overwhelming favorite against Kearny.

Several other games will tell us whether recent improvement can travel. Foothills Christian takes a two-game winning streak to Tri-City Christian in a matchup between neighboring Division V-AA teams.

El Cajon Valley follows its 42-0 breakthrough with a winnable but important trip to Castle Park.

Mountain Empire, one point short of finally defeating Crawford, gets an immediate opportunity to reverse last season’s loss to San Ysidro.

The section’s strongest teams face tests. Its developing teams face opportunities. By Friday night, several early-season impressions should become much harder to dismiss.

HIGHLANDERS’ TURNAROUND MEETS ITS ULTIMATE TEST

No. 2 CATHEDRAL CATHOLIC (1-2) at No. 12 HELIX (3-1)

Friday, 7 p.m., at Hart Stadium

Helix has needed only three weeks to change the conversation surrounding its football program.

After opening with a 38-6 loss to Santa Fe Christian, the Highlanders have won three straight, including consecutive victories over St. Augustine and Oceanside. They have shown improved discipline, timely playmaking and enough strength in the trenches to suggest the turnaround is legitimate.

Cathedral Catholic represents another level of examination.

The Dons’ 1-2 record is deceiving. They averaged more than 400 yards through their first three games and demonstrated their considerable ceiling last week with a 63-0 demolition of Mater Dei Catholic.

Quarterback Koa Smith-Mayall powered Cathedral’s offensive explosion, completing 10 of 13 passes for 203 yards and four touchdowns while adding a 60-yard scoring run. Isaac Cook caught four passes for 79 yards and two touchdowns.

Cathedral was equally imposing defensively. Tali Burton recorded 14 tackles, Kevin Clark contributed 12 tackles and two sacks, and Ryder Molchanoff added two more sacks. Honor Fa’alave-Johnson made seven tackles, including two behind the line, while Noah Lauifi intercepted a pass.

Helix may have the depth—particularly up front—to prevent this matchup from resembling Cathedral’s demolition of Mater Dei Catholic. The Highlanders also possess enough high-end talent to make the Dons work.

Quarterback Caden Thompson has become increasingly comfortable directing the offense. In last week’s 20-13 victory over Oceanside, Thompson passed for 125 yards and a touchdown, rushed for another score and twice extended possessions with fourth-down scrambles.

Helix converted six of its seven fourth-down opportunities.

Running back Stephon Fuentes supplied 76 rushing yards and a touchdown, while Jeremy Robinson caught a 43-yard scoring pass and later broke up a potential Oceanside touchdown.

Robinson and Jacob “J.J.” Andrew-Johnson have produced interception returns of 93 and 98 yards, respectively, during the winning streak.

Jordan Fuga, Jeremy Davis and the rest of Helix’s developing cast give the Highlanders more talent than their No. 12 ranking might indicate. Helix limited Oceanside to 219 total yards last week and has allowed only 40 points during its three-game winning streak.

This rivalry has rarely lacked intensity.

The teams have split 20 meetings since their first listed matchup in 2009, producing a 10-10 series tie. Cathedral has won four of the past five, including two consecutive shutouts by a combined score of 77-0. Helix’s most recent victory was a 35-21 decision in 2023.

Computer projections anticipate another decisive Cathedral victory. One calls for 31-7, while another projects 42-7. Those margins reflect Cathedral’s schedule strength, offensive production and personnel advantages at several positions.

This does not feel like the same Helix team Cathedral shut out during each of the past two seasons.

Hart Stadium, Helix’s defensive front and the Highlanders’ renewed confidence should keep the game competitive considerably longer than the projections anticipate. Thompson’s mobility also gives Helix an opportunity to extend possessions and prevent Cathedral from completely controlling the tempo.

Eventually, Smith-Mayall and Cathedral’s collection of playmakers should create too many problems.

Helix will demonstrate how far it has come. The Highlanders do not appear quite ready to clear this particular hurdle.

FEARLESS FORECASTER: CATHEDRAL CATHOLIC 35, HELIX 21.

EAGLES SEEK REVENGE WITHOUT THE LETDOWN

No. 3 GRANITE HILLS (2-1) vs. LOS ALAMITOS (0-4)

Friday, 7 p.m., at Granite Hills Stadium

Granite Hills’ season changed by a matter of inches last Friday.

The Eagles stopped Mission Hills quarterback Furian Inferrera just short of the goal line on a potential winning two-point conversion, preserving a 28-27 victory over the previously top-ranked team in San Diego County.

That result restored Granite Hills’ position among the county’s leading Open Division contenders. Now comes a different type of challenge: avoiding a letdown against a dangerous opponent whose record does not accurately reflect its ability.

Los Alamitos arrives at 0-4, but its losses have come against Inglewood, Huntington Beach, Gardena Serra and Downey—four Southern Section programs capable of challenging almost anyone. The Griffins have become increasingly competitive, losing 34-23 to Serra before taking Downey deep into the fourth quarter last week.

Los Alamitos tied Downey at 21 in the third quarter before falling 28-21. Quarterback Elijah McDaniel passed for 76 yards and a touchdown while adding 76 rushing yards. He connected with Ashton Gogue for a 9-yard score, and Finn Kelly added a 3-yard touchdown run. Kamden Tillis also recovered a mishandled punt snap in the end zone for a touchdown.

Tillis is a familiar name to Granite Hills.

When these teams met last season, Los Alamitos prevailed 49-42 in a shootout. Tillis carried 34 times for 205 yards and three touchdowns, helping the Griffins overcome an early 14-7 deficit by scoring 28 points during the second quarter.

Granite Hills quarterback Zac Benitez was nearly as productive. Then a junior, Benitez completed 34 of 45 passes for 423 yards and three touchdowns and rushed for two more scores. Jacob Nunez converted all six of his extra-point attempts.

Benitez enters the rematch following another of his finest performances. Against Mission Hills, the senior completed 17 of 23 passes for 250 yards and two touchdowns while rushing for 43 yards and two more scores.

His 67-yard touchdown pass to Jonah Hamilton gave Granite Hills a 21-7 lead. After Mission Hills rallied to tie the game, Benitez drove the Eagles back down the field and placed the go-ahead touchdown pass perfectly for Courtney “Nino” Miller-Thompson with approximately 50 seconds remaining.

Jonah Hamilton finished with four catches for 86 yards, Courtney “Nino” Miller-Thompson collected six receptions for 54 yards, and Gage Spalding rushed for 77 yards. Jesse Wilhite contributed 51 receiving yards and intercepted a pass in the end zone immediately before halftime.

Granite Hills surrendered 458 yards against Mission Hills, but the Eagles created critical takeaways and won the game’s most important downs. That resilience may matter again against a Los Alamitos team with nothing resembling the confidence of a typical 0-4 opponent.

The Griffins are unlikely to be intimidated by Granite Hills’ ranking or last week’s upset. They have played a demanding schedule, remained competitive during their recent losses and know they defeated many of these same Eagles a year ago.

Still, the circumstances have changed. This meeting takes place in El Cajon, Benitez is playing with the command of an experienced senior quarterback, and Granite Hills has considerably more balance around him. The emergence of Miller-Thompson gives the Eagles another difference-maker alongside Hamilton, Wilhite, Spalding and Manny Walker.

Granite Hills has not been quite as dominant as anticipated entering the season, but last week’s victory demonstrated that the Eagles remain firmly among the county’s best teams. They cannot afford to judge Los Alamitos by its record, but another complete offensive performance should be enough to reverse last season’s result.

FEARLESS FORECASTER: GRANITE HILLS 35, LOS ALAMITOS 28.

PATRIOTS TAKE HOMECOMING SHOW DOWN ROAD

No. 17 CHRISTIAN (3-0) vs. CALEXICO (2-2)

Friday, 7 p.m., at Priest Field, El Cajon Valley High

Christian will celebrate Homecoming away from its usual borrowed home at Granite Hills, but only geographically.

With Granite Hills hosting Los Alamitos at Granite Hills Stadium, the Patriots will move this week’s game against Calexico to Priest Field at El Cajon Valley High. Christian has typically played about one game there each season, so the temporary location should create little disruption—and nothing substantial enough to change the expected outcome.

The more significant concern remains the health of quarterback Kaleb Runkle.

Runkle suffered a lower-leg injury on Christian’s third offensive play against Bishop’s two weeks ago. The Patriots have not announced a timetable for his return, but the senior appeared for last week’s opening coin toss at Olympian wearing a walking boot and using crutches.

His availability Friday appears doubtful.

Losing one of the county’s better quarterbacks would significantly weaken most teams. Christian, however, has reached a manageable portion of its schedule while senior playmaker Kai Rosier continues holding down the position.

Kai Rosier guided the Patriots to a 27-6 victory over Olympian, accounting for two touchdowns. He completed 3 of 9 passes for 29 yards and a score while rushing six times for 44 yards and another touchdown.

Those passing numbers were modest, but Rosier showed why coach Patrick Bugg entrusted him with the offense. Under heavy pressure, he escaped toward the right sideline and extended a broken play before lofting a touchdown pass across the field to Gavin Runkle near the back-left pylon.

Rosier later turned the corner for a third-quarter touchdown run that restored Christian’s two-score advantage.

He does not need to duplicate the passing offense the Patriots expected to operate with Kaleb Runkle. Against Calexico, Christian can emphasize Rosier’s mobility, get the ball to Quentin Uhland in space and lean upon sophomore running back Julian Morones.

Quentin Uhland produced a 70-yard touchdown on Christian’s second offensive play against Olympian and finished with three receptions for 83 yards. Julian Morones carried 10 times for 48 yards and a touchdown while creating even greater disruption at linebacker.

Morones repeatedly penetrated Olympian’s backfield, recording a sack and delivering another heavy hit on quarterback Walter Ignacio. Christian held the Eagles to 164 total yards—only three through the air—and shut them out during the second half.

The Patriots have allowed nine points over their past two games and 29 through three contests. That defense gives Christian considerable room to continue developing its revised offense without Runkle.

Calexico enters after a 49-20 loss to Cibola of Yuma.

Quarterback Ivan Hurtado threw two touchdown passes, while Fernando Balderrama contributed 47 rushing yards, 38 receiving yards and a score.

Running back Jose Fernandez has been the Bulldogs’ leading ground threat over the full season, averaging 98 rushing yards per game, while Leo Longino leads the receiving corps.

Calexico averages approximately 250 yards per game, with most of its production coming on the ground. That approach runs directly into Christian’s greatest strength: an active front seven capable of controlling the line and forcing an opponent into uncomfortable passing situations.

The Bulldogs may produce one scoring opportunity through Hurtado, Fernandez or Balderrama, but they are unlikely to sustain enough drives to remain competitive. Christian should control field position, create short fields for Rosier and gradually turn Homecoming into a rout.

Even without its starting quarterback, Christian remains capable of winning this game by six touchdowns. Morones should control the interior, Rosier can attack the perimeter, and the Patriots’ defense may come close to recording its first shutout.

FEARLESS FORECASTER: CHRISTIAN 42, CALEXICO 7.

RESTED COUGARS STAND IN VAQUEROS’ WAY

EL CAPITAN (1-3) at No. 22 STEELE CANYON (1-2)

Friday, 7 p.m., at Steele Canyon High

Steele Canyon has waited two weeks to return to the field. El Capitan may feel as if it has spent the past month waiting for one play to go its way.

The Cougars’ scheduled game against Rancho Christian was canceled by mutual agreement, reportedly on Aug. 27, giving Steele Canyon an unexpected open date last week. The break provided an opportunity to regroup after consecutive losses to Santa Fe Christian and unbeaten Eastlake.

El Capitan enters under considerably different circumstances. The Vaqueros have dropped three of four games, but each loss has been decided by exactly seven points: 28-21 in Hawaii, 27-21 against Ramona and 14-7 last week at Bonita Vista.

Those margins suggest El Capitan is close. Its inability to finish productive possessions suggests how much work remains.

The Vaqueros controlled much of last week’s game defensively and scored first when sophomore quarterback Daniel Montijo found Elijah Arzu down the left side. Montijo gave his receiver an opportunity in traffic, and Arzu elevated above two defenders for an impressive touchdown reception and a 7-0 lead.

The play continued Montijo’s promising introduction to varsity football. One week earlier, in his first start, he completed 10 of 14 passes for 172 yards and two touchdowns against Ramona.

Montijo went down awkwardly during the first half against Bonita Vista, however, and Kyle Carnes subsequently entered at quarterback. Carnes’ pass near midfield was intercepted by Charlie Finch and returned 50 yards for the tying touchdown.

The game remained 7-7 until Ta’Vyon Moore broke loose for a 40-yard touchdown with 3:40 remaining. El Capitan’s defense allowed only one offensive score, but the Vaqueros could not generate enough offense to overcome the pick-six.

That has become the central concern for El Capitan. Its defense has repeatedly provided the offense with opportunities and favorable field position, but the Vaqueros have struggled to turn those possessions into points.

Quillan White recorded a third-down sack last week, and the defense stopped Bonita Vista on fourth down near midfield. A similar performance will be required against an experienced Steele Canyon offense led by senior quarterback Gavin Caha.

In the Cougars’ most recent game, Gavin Caha accounted for both Steele Canyon touchdowns during a 27-14 loss at Eastlake. He connected with Marcus Hunt for a 54-yard touchdown on the opening possession and later scored on a 1-yard quarterback sneak.

Hunt also broke a 43-yard run that moved Steele Canyon to the Eastlake 7. The Cougars failed to score on that possession and later missed a field goal after again moving into scoring position. They recovered an onside kick while trailing 21-14 in the fourth quarter but were stopped on fourth down in Eastlake territory.

The final score did not fully reflect how competitive Steele Canyon remained. Eastlake’s David Branco rushed for 288 yards and all four Titans touchdowns, including a 75-yard clincher after the Cougars’ final fourth-down failure.

Steele Canyon should encounter less resistance moving the football this week, although El Capitan’s defense has done enough to prevent any of its games from becoming one-sided. The Vaqueros’ best path requires creating turnovers, shortening the field and producing their most complete defensive performance of the season.

Even then, they must solve their offensive problems.

If Montijo is available and can reconnect with Arzu for another explosive play, El Capitan could remain within striking distance. If Carnes is required to carry a larger portion of the quarterback responsibilities, the Vaqueros must protect the football and avoid giving Steele Canyon easy points.

The Cougars have the more established quarterback, greater overall depth and a rested defense. They also have a typical Steele Canyon physical advantage that should become increasingly apparent as the game progresses.

El Capitan may keep the margin manageable, but the Cougars are better equipped to control this matchup.

FEARLESS FORECASTER: STEELE CANYON 24, EL CAPITAN 10.

FOOTHILLERS RETURN HOME WITH SOMETHING TO PROVE

OTAY RANCH (2-2) at No. 19 GROSSMONT (3-1)

Friday, 7 p.m., at Grossmont High

Grossmont’s undefeated start ended last week, but the Foothillers may have strengthened their standing among the county’s better teams in the process.

Playing on the road against a higher-ranked Point Loma team, Grossmont led 14-10 at halftime and remained within one possession until the final seconds of a 28-20 loss. The Foothillers did enough defensively to win. What they could not overcome were several decisive mistakes on special teams and offense.

Point Loma returned a punt 62 yards for its first touchdown, blocked another punt to create a short field for a fourth-quarter score and turned an interception into the go-ahead touchdown.

Grossmont’s defense permitted only two offensive touchdowns against a Point Loma team that had averaged nearly 46 points through its first three games. The Foothillers intercepted a pass, recovered a fumble, produced 16 quarterback hurries and later blocked a field-goal attempt to preserve an opportunity to tie the game.

That performance provides a useful comparison for Friday’s home matchup against Otay Ranch.

The Mustangs are coming off a 57-33 loss to undefeated Patrick Henry, but their 33-point output deserves attention. It exceeded the combined total scored by Patrick Henry’s first three opponents and forced the Patriots’ high-powered offense to keep producing.

Patrick Henry quarterback Madin Gardini ultimately overwhelmed Otay Ranch, passing for 431 yards and five touchdowns while rushing for 60 yards and two more scores. Kymani Joseph caught eight passes for 251 yards and four touchdowns.

Grossmont may not possess that same degree of explosiveness, but the Foothillers have developed into a balanced offense averaging more than 400 yards per game.

Senior quarterback Tyler Holmes has been the foundation. Holmes accounted for 216 yards and two touchdowns against Point Loma, completing 11 of 25 passes for 159 yards while rushing for 57 yards and a score. His 2-yard keeper and conversion run gave Grossmont an early 8-0 lead.

Holmes then connected with Max Bewley for a well-designed 20-yard touchdown. Bewley finished with five receptions for 71 yards, while Nate Clark added two catches for 47 yards.

Grossmont also can distribute the football among Jacob Fee, Cedric Norris, Jamar McClendon and Jonah Martinez. Norris scored from a short-yardage package in the fourth quarter, pulling the Foothillers within eight points.

Otay Ranch presents its own legitimate passing threat. Quarterback Caleb Delaughter averages approximately 242 passing yards and 253 total yards per game. Brayden Hyman has been his leading receiver at more than 76 yards per contest, while Jaidon Castillo gives the Mustangs a backfield option.

The difference should be Grossmont’s defense.

Rudy Gomez led the Foothillers with 10 tackles against Point Loma, Kaiden Ong added eight tackles and blocked a field goal, Darion Crawford intercepted a pass, and Jackson Baird recorded a sack. Grossmont allowed 379 yards but repeatedly forced the Pointers to earn their offensive production.

Otay Ranch demonstrated last week that it can score when a game becomes open. Grossmont cannot allow the Mustangs to settle into that type of rhythm. Pressure on Delaughter and better discipline on special teams should prevent another opponent from finding easy points outside its regular offense.

Grossmont also must demonstrate greater composure during the game’s decisive sequences. The Foothillers had enough veteran presence and defensive production to win at Point Loma, but the Pointers made the cleaner plays when field position and possession became most valuable.

At home, against a defense that allowed seven touchdowns last week, Grossmont should have more opportunities to separate.

Otay Ranch will produce some offense and could keep this competitive into the second half. Holmes and the Foothillers, however, offer greater balance, and Grossmont’s defense is better equipped to produce the stops Patrick Henry struggled to find last week.

FEARLESS FORECASTER: GROSSMONT 34, OTAY RANCH 20.

VALHALLA’S RECORD CHANGES—EXPECTATION DOES NOT

No. 23 VALHALLA (1-2) at KEARNY (0-3)

Friday, 7 p.m., at Kearny High

Valhalla entered this week having won three games by a combined 197-6. It will arrive at Kearny with an official record of 1-2.

What happened in between represents the week’s biggest East County football story. What happens Friday night should be considerably less complicated.

Valhalla was required to forfeit two victories for using an ineligible player. According to reporting by the San Diego Union-Tribune, however, a Valhalla spokesperson said the school had been informed that the player was cleared to participate before later being told he was ineligible.

That account leaves an important distinction. If Valhalla played the athlete after being told he was eligible, this was not necessarily a school knowingly disregarding an eligibility ruling. It suggests a breakdown somewhere in a complicated clearance process involving multiple transfers with different classifications—some immediately eligible, some subject to a five-game sit-out period and others ineligible.

Unless the ruling is changed, the two forfeits will remain losses in the standings. The Norsemen nevertheless played those games unbeknownst of the technicality and dominated both opponents.

They opened coach Jason Carter’s first season with a 75-0 victory over San Jacinto Valley Academy, defeated Castle Park 66-0 and routed Mar Vista 56-6. The forfeits may revise the record book, but they do not alter what Valhalla demonstrated on the field.

Nor does the eligibility situation appear likely to change Friday’s result.

Even if one or more players are unavailable, Valhalla has produced too much depth, balance and defensive superiority for Kearny to present a serious threat.

Senior running back Jayden Hunter delivered the most dominant performance of his Valhalla career last week, rushing 22 times for 148 yards and five touchdowns against Mar Vista. Through three played games, Hunter is averaging 106.3 rushing yards.

Sophomore Camryn Conley added 86 yards on only seven carries as the Norsemen accumulated 252 rushing yards.

Junior quarterback Adrian Wilson supplied the balance, completing 11 of 20 passes for 136 yards and two touchdowns without an interception. Wilson connected with freshman A.J. Wright for a 5-yard score and found Desmond Demara for a 25-yard touchdown.

Demara finished with six receptions for 92 yards, giving Wilson another productive option in an offense that has averaged approximately 377 yards and nearly 66 points per played game.

Valhalla’s defense has been even more overwhelming.

Mar Vista’s 3-yard touchdown run by Jehiel Crawford remains the only score the Norsemen have permitted through three games. Valhalla has recorded two shutouts and owns an on-field scoring margin of plus-191.

Kearny has nothing in its first three results suggesting it can withstand that combination.

The Komets fell to 0-3 following a 41-6 loss to unbeaten Maranatha Christian. Colin Leonard passed for 234 yards and three touchdowns for the Eagles, including two scores to Sawyer Bryant. Ryan Niguidula added 115 rushing yards and a touchdown on only nine carries.

Kearny’s only points came on a 20-yard run by Kai Nguyen.

Maranatha Christian is a very good 4-0 small-school program, but the 35-point margin remains ominous before Kearny faces a Valhalla team that has been even more destructive. The Komets have been outscored 100-52, while their available statistics show only 109.7 rushing yards per game and no documented passing production.

Jaylen Hill, averaging 90.5 rushing yards, gives Kearny its best chance to move the ball and shorten the game. But attempting to control possession on the ground becomes difficult against a defense that has allowed one touchdown all season—particularly if Valhalla builds another early multi-score advantage.

That is the likely script.

Carter does not need his team to make an emotional statement about the forfeits, and Valhalla does not need to chase another historic score. The Norsemen merely need to continue playing with the efficiency and discipline they have shown throughout their coaching transition.

Hunter and Conley should control the ground game. Wilson, and “opener” Jeremiah Loper, should find favorable matchups for Demara and Wright when Kearny commits additional defenders to the box. The defense should again create short fields and place the game under a running clock.

The forfeitures could eventually influence Valhalla’s placement within the section’s power-ranking structure, although the extent of that effect remains uncertain. They should not change the larger football assessment: this is a dramatically improved team with legitimate championship potential once Grossmont Valley League play begins.

For now, the official record says Valhalla has lost twice.

Kearny should not expect to encounter a team that has played like a two-loss club.

FEARLESS FORECASTER: VALHALLA 56, KEARNY 7.

MATADORS FACE ANOTHER TEAM BUILT FOR HIGH LEVEL

No. 16 POWAY (2-2) at MOUNT MIGUEL (1-2)

Friday, 7 p.m., at Mount Miguel High

Although Poway and Mount Miguel bring similarly modest records into Spring Valley, the manner in which those records were constructed—and the direction each program appears to be heading—make the No. 16 Titans a substantial favorite.

Poway opened with victories over Scripps Ranch and Ramona before encountering two of the strongest teams in the San Diego Section. The Titans lost 28-14 at San Marcos and then fell 35-7 against top-ranked Carlsbad.

Mount Miguel’s latest upper-level test was considerably less competitive.

Torrey Pines scored early, controlled the line of scrimmage and routed the Matadors, 44-6. Mount Miguel produced only 156 total yards and virtually no rushing attack while surrendering its third consecutive substantial point total.

The Matadors have allowed 125 points through three games. Their schedule has been difficult, but the results indicate that the roster inherited by first-year coach James Simon is not presently equipped to compete consistently against the caliber of teams placed on the schedule before the program’s offseason transformation.

Poway represents another of those opponents.

The Titans are not as explosive as Torrey Pines or Carlsbad. They have scored only 61 points through four games, and their offense is designed more around physical control than constant big plays.

That may actually make them a particularly uncomfortable matchup for Mount Miguel.

Poway averages approximately 282 yards per game, with nearly 182 coming on the ground. Running back Carson Williams leads the Titans at 83.3 rushing yards per game, giving Poway the type of dependable ball carrier capable of exploiting a defense that has spent too much time on the field.

Quarterback Trenton Schrecker averages better than 100 passing yards, while Trevor Murphy supplies the primary receiving threat. Poway also used Levi Graham at quarterback against Carlsbad, and Graham delivered the Titans’ only touchdown on a pass to Murphy.

Poway’s 35-7 loss should not be interpreted as evidence that the Titans have slipped into Mount Miguel’s range. Carlsbad accumulated 520 yards behind Darian Webb’s 251 rushing yards and three touchdowns. The Lancers have overwhelmed nearly everyone they have faced.

Mount Miguel’s 44-6 loss at Torrey Pines revealed more fundamental problems.

The Matadors finished with only three rushing yards. That left quarterbacks Amare White and Enrique Gonzalez attempting to create offense against a defense that no longer needed to respect the run.

White, a freshman, completed 4 of 8 passes for 122 yards and a touchdown. Gonzalez finished 5 of 8 for 31 yards with an interception.

Nearly everything productive went through junior receiver Cayden “Prince” Mobley.

Mobley caught six passes for 134 yards and Mount Miguel’s only touchdown, including a 76-yard reception. He is averaging nearly 110 receiving yards and remains the one Matador capable of changing the game with a single touch.

Poway will enter knowing that.

The Titans can devote additional coverage toward Mobley until Mount Miguel proves it can run the football or consistently complete passes elsewhere. That places considerable pressure on White, Gonzalez and running back Dominic Lopez to create the balance that disappeared against Torrey Pines.

Lopez entered last week averaging 55.3 rushing yards, but Mount Miguel’s ground game was essentially removed from the offense. He remained active defensively, leading the Matadors with eight tackles. Isaiah Hicks and Kalani Tausaga added five stops apiece.

Those defenders should see plenty of Williams and Poway’s physical running game Friday.

Mount Miguel’s clearest path to competitiveness involves producing an early explosive play to Mobley, creating a turnover and forcing Poway away from a comfortable, possession-oriented script. The Matadors cannot afford another game in which the opponent establishes the run, builds an early lead and allows its defense to attack the quarterbacks without hesitation.

A few rating systems may still be influenced by Mount Miguel’s recent program history, its preseason placement or results accumulated before the full effect of the offseason roster turnover became apparent.

The current evidence is more persuasive.

Poway owns victories over two credible opponents, played San Marcos competitively and just endured the most difficult game on its schedule. Mount Miguel has one established offensive difference-maker, an unsettled quarterback rotation, minimal offensive balance and a defense allowing nearly 42 points per game.

Poway may not possess the type of passing attack that produces another 44-point avalanche immediately. Its running game, defense and overall physical advantage should nevertheless allow the Titans to pull away steadily.

Mount Miguel may connect with Mobley for another touchdown, but generating multiple sustained scoring drives against Poway appears unlikely.

FEARLESS FORECASTER: POWAY 35, MOUNT MIGUEL 13.

BRAVES’ BREAKTHROUGH ARRIVES JUST IN TIME

EL CAJON VALLEY (1-3) at CASTLE PARK (1-3)

Friday, 6:30 p.m., at Castle Park High

El Cajon Valley spent three weeks waiting for its promising offense to become productive.

Then everything arrived at once.

Sophomore quarterback TJ Ibrahimi threw for 297 yards and five touchdowns, Amir Miller produced 150 receiving yards, and the Braves overwhelmed Orange Glen, 42-0, for their first victory of the season.

Orange Glen may be the lowest-rated opponent El Cajon Valley has encountered. It would be dangerous to assume one dominating performance solved every problem exposed during an 0-3 start.

But the Braves did more than defeat a struggling opponent. They finally demonstrated what their offense can become when Ibrahimi receives enough protection to attack downfield.

Now they must prove it can travel.

El Cajon Valley visits Castle Park for a matchup between 1-3 teams positioned beside one another near the bottom of the San Diego Section rankings. Castle Park will probably enter as the favorite, but this represents an opponent the Braves can—and perhaps must—defeat.

The playoff implications are not yet absolute, but the urgency is real.

The larger point is simpler: the Braves cannot depend upon an at-large postseason opportunity while remaining that far outside the primary field.

After Castle Park, El Cajon Valley enters its Grossmont Valley League schedule against West Hills, Valhalla, Monte Vista, El Capitan and Santana. Based upon current rankings, the Braves may be underdogs in every one of those games.

That makes Castle Park one of their most attainable remaining victories.

A win would move El Cajon Valley to 2-3, provide additional rankings value and establish momentum before the league schedule. A loss would return the Braves to 1-4 and leave them needing multiple upsets merely to reenter the postseason discussion.

Fortunately for El Cajon Valley, Friday’s matchup presents opportunities for its best players to determine the game.

Ibrahimi completed 10 of 16 passes against Orange Glen, averaging an extraordinary 29.7 yards per completion. His five touchdown passes went to four receivers, demonstrating that the Braves possess considerably more than one downfield option.

Amir Miller remains the most imposing target. The approximately 191-pound senior caught four passes for 150 yards and two touchdowns, scoring from 53 and 32 yards.

His combination of size, strong hands and sufficient speed to separate after the catch creates a matchup problem for almost any lower-division secondary.

But Castle Park cannot concentrate entirely upon Miller.

Rashaunn Barr turned his only reception into a 60-yard touchdown. Gavino Kendall-Pinal scored from 36 yards, and Janvier Kashindi contributed four catches for 55 yards and a touchdown while also producing 28 rushing yards.

For three weeks, those playmakers existed primarily as unrealized potential. Against Orange Glen, Ibrahimi finally had the time and confidence to use all of them.

The sophomore no longer needs to be evaluated exclusively as the quarterback El Cajon Valley might have in the future. His five-touchdown performance demonstrated that he can win games for the Braves now.

Castle Park presents a much different challenge.

The Trojans reportedly average approximately 240 rushing yards per game while producing little through the air. Their objective will be to control possession, wear down El Cajon Valley’s limited depth and keep Ibrahimi and Miller standing on the sideline.

That formula makes the first half especially important.

If Castle Park establishes the run and forces the Braves into another game dominated by snap count, fatigue and field position, El Cajon Valley may resemble the team that struggled during its opening three weeks.

If Ibrahimi produces one or two early explosive touchdowns, the Trojans may be forced away from the offensive style they prefer.

Castle Park enters after a 35-0 loss to Montgomery, proving its running game can be contained when an opponent wins early downs and forces obvious passing situations. El Cajon Valley’s defense delivered precisely that type of performance against Orange Glen.

The Braves held the Patriots to 77 total yards, including only five through the air. They produced 13 tackles for loss, with Angel Perez recording three sacks and four stops behind the line.

Sophomore Joseph Uwajeh intercepted two passes, returning one 22 yards for a touchdown. Jonathan Gonzalez led the defense with nine tackles, while Yousef Petros and Justice Virgen added seven apiece.

Castle Park is substantially better equipped to run the ball than Orange Glen, and El Cajon Valley’s defense cannot expect another statistically effortless night. The Braves must prevent four- and five-yard gains from becoming lengthy, exhausting possessions.

That is where the depth concern becomes legitimate.

Castle Park may have the more dependable four-quarter formula. El Cajon Valley, however, appears to possess the matchup’s best individual talent. Ibrahimi, Miller and Barr provide explosive-play potential the Trojans may not be able to duplicate.

The Braves are unlikely to score 42 again. They also should not need to.

One week ago, El Cajon Valley looked like an offense waiting for next season. Ibrahimi’s performance changed that timeline. With postseason opportunities already becoming scarce, the Braves need their young quarterback to take another step immediately.

This is a modest upset—but an attainable one.

FEARLESS FORECASTER: EL CAJON VALLEY 22, CASTLE PARK 21.

REDHAWKS TO REVERSE LAST YEAR’S RESULT

SAN YSIDRO (1-3) at MOUNTAIN EMPIRE (2-2)

Friday, 7 p.m., at Mountain Empire High

Mountain Empire’s greatest evidence of progress came attached to a one-point loss.

The RedHawks rushed for 409 yards, scored 41 points and led Crawford by eight during the fourth quarter before falling, 42-41, last Friday in Pine Valley.

Mountain Empire had lost its four previous meetings with Crawford by a combined score of 92-6. The RedHawks did not erase that history with a victory, but they reduced what once appeared to be an enormous gap to a missed opportunity or two.

That performance carries considerable relevance into Friday’s home game against San Ysidro.

Both teams have played Crawford this season. The Colts shut out San Ysidro, 36-0. Mountain Empire scored six rushing touchdowns and took Crawford to the final possession.

Common opponents do not always provide perfect projections. In this instance, the 41-point difference reinforces nearly everything else the teams have shown through four games.

Mountain Empire should win.

That does not make San Ysidro harmless. The Cougars defeated the RedHawks 27-19 last season and possess enough offensive ability to take advantage of a Mountain Empire defense that surrendered 501 yards against Crawford.

But the circumstances surrounding the rematch have changed substantially.

Several members of Mountain Empire’s current core were already part of the program last season, including Elisha Robinson, Chance Ross, Amar Mahasin and Angel Avila. Robinson and Ross have since developed into one of the section’s most productive rushing combinations.

Robinson delivered another extraordinary performance against Crawford, carrying 34 times for 294 yards and five touchdowns.

That followed his 300-yard, four-touchdown performance against O’Farrell Charter. In two weeks, the junior has accumulated 594 rushing yards and nine touchdowns.

Through four games, Robinson has approximately 833 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns. He is averaging nearly 210 yards per game while continuing to contribute extensively at linebacker.

This is no longer merely a promising runner producing against small-school opposition. Crawford knew Robinson would receive the football and still could not stop him.

Ross made that assignment even more difficult.

The senior quarterback rushed eight times for 114 yards and a touchdown, averaging 14.3 yards per carry. Robinson and Ross combined for 408 rushing yards themselves, allowing Mountain Empire to generate 424 total yards despite completing only two passes.

That complementary threat changes the structure of the RedHawks’ offense. San Ysidro cannot simply commit every available defender toward Robinson without creating running lanes for Ross.

Mountain Empire also has Mahasin available as its leading receiving threat when the RedHawks choose to throw. But coach Cameron Keller has little reason to move away from an offense averaging approximately 280 rushing yards and 386 total yards per game.

San Ysidro enters with considerably less momentum.

Hoover routed the Cougars, 61-13, behind one of the section’s most overwhelming individual performances. Quarterback Hez Manuel passed for 344 yards and five touchdowns while adding 113 rushing yards and three more scores.

That means one player accounted for 457 yards and eight touchdowns against San Ysidro.

Jayden Cunningham added 135 rushing yards and a touchdown, and Jaxx Johnson caught seven passes for 148 yards and a score. Hoover demonstrated that the Cougars can be attacked both through the air and on the ground.

Mountain Empire’s approach will be far less mysterious.

Robinson will receive the ball repeatedly. Ross will use his mobility when San Ysidro’s defense collapses too aggressively. The RedHawks will attempt to control possession and force the Cougars to prove they can withstand four quarters of physical football.

San Ysidro does have a potentially productive offensive piece in Aaron Aguirre, who has contributed as both a passer and runner. Caleb Contreras provides a receiving option, while Luis Farias and Lamar Williams lead the available defensive production.

The Cougars average approximately 194 total yards per game, with more production coming through the air than on the ground. That gives San Ysidro a potential avenue against a Mountain Empire secondary that allowed Crawford quarterback Giovanni Garcia to pass for 153 yards and a touchdown.

Mountain Empire’s concern is not its ability to score.

It is whether the defense can prevent this from becoming another extended shootout.

Crawford rushed for 348 yards, and Shamar Warren nearly matched Robinson with 276 yards and three touchdowns. San Ysidro does not possess that type of rushing attack, averaging only approximately 75 yards per game, but Mountain Empire still must play with greater consistency.

Avila recorded 14 tackles last week, David Oney added 11, and Robinson contributed six tackles, two tackles for loss and two sacks. Mahasin, Spencer Alvarez, Elias Gutierrez and Logan Snyder also made impact plays as the RedHawks forced two fumbles.

San Ysidro should produce more offense than it did against Crawford, particularly if Aguirre can find Contreras and force Mountain Empire to defend the full field. The Cougars also have last year’s victory to remind them that this matchup is not automatically beyond reach.

The difference is how much Mountain Empire has developed since then.

The RedHawks are averaging 37.8 points per game and have scored 147 points during their three home appearances—56 against Hamilton, 50 against O’Farrell Charter and 41 against Crawford.

San Ysidro, meanwhile, has allowed 97 points in its past two losses to Crawford and Hoover.

The Cougars might keep this competitive early. They are good enough to punish Mountain Empire turnovers or defensive mistakes, and the RedHawks cannot allow the disappointment from last week to linger.

Once Robinson and Ross establish the run, however, the separation should become apparent.

Last season belonged to San Ysidro. The rematch should belong convincingly to the RedHawks.

FEARLESS FORECASTER: MOUNTAIN EMPIRE 42, SAN YSIDRO 20.

KNIGHTS’ TURNAROUND FACES BEST TEST

FOOTHILLS CHRISTIAN (2-2) at TRI-CITY CHRISTIAN (3-1)

Friday, 7 p.m., at Tri-City Christian

Foothills Christian does not need to search far for evidence that it can defeat Tri-City Christian.

The Knights just beat the team that beat the Eagles.

Tri-City Christian traveled to Hamilton two weeks ago and lost 28-20. Foothills Christian visited the same field last Friday, built a 19-point lead and survived Hamilton’s late rally for a 25-20 victory.

Football rarely operates through perfect transitive equations, and Friday’s game moves to Tri-City Christian’s home field. But that common opponent demonstrates how dramatically Foothills Christian’s season has changed.

The Knights were shut out 48-0 by Escondido Charter in their opener. Three weeks later, they have won consecutive games for the first time since 2023 and enter league play separated from Tri-City Christian by one position in the Division V-AA rankings.

Foothills Christian is currently No. 4 in Division V-AA, with Tri-City Christian immediately behind at No. 5. They are also adjacent in the overall section rankings at approximately Nos. 75 and 76.

This is as close as the records and ratings suggest.

The Knights’ transformation begins with David Stewart.

Stewart carried 38 times for 228 yards and two touchdowns against Hamilton. His 38 attempts represented 95 percent of Foothills Christian’s rushing plays, yet he continued averaging six yards per carry against a defense that knew precisely where the ball was going.

The senior has rushed for 634 yards and seven touchdowns over his past three games.

Stewart gained 221 yards against Calipatria, followed with 185 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-7 victory over Orange Glen and then produced his season-high total against Hamilton.

He has already more than doubled the 311 rushing yards he recorded during the entire 2025 season.

Foothills Christian has found its identity.

Tri-City Christian must stop No. 5.

The Eagles possess enough defensive personnel to make that more difficult than Stewart’s recent assignments. Carter Williams averages nearly eight tackles per game, while Roddick Salas provides disruption along the defensive front.

But Hamilton recorded 14 tackles for loss against Foothills Christian and still could not prevent Stewart from producing 228 yards. The Knights continued handing him the football, remained patient through negative plays and eventually accumulated 236 rushing yards.

That approach will also help Foothills Christian defend Tri-City’s greatest weapon by keeping him off the field.

Senior quarterback Donovan Cronkhite is the foundation of the Eagles’ offense. Cronkhite averages approximately 149 passing yards and 120 rushing yards, giving him nearly 270 total yards per game.

Foothills Christian did not encounter that type of dual-threat quarterback against Hamilton.

Cronkhite can extend plays, create explosive runs when the passing structure breaks down and force the Knights to defend every portion of the field. Noah Haber, averaging better than 61 receiving yards, gives him a dependable target.

Tri-City Christian averages approximately 315 total yards per game, compared with 278 for Foothills Christian. The Eagles also possess considerably more offensive balance, averaging 161 rushing yards and 154 passing yards.

The Knights are much more concentrated.

They average approximately 195 rushing yards but only 84 through the air. Quarterback Hayden Oleson completed 8 of 25 passes for 79 yards and a touchdown against Hamilton.

Oleson does not need to match Cronkhite statistically. He must protect the football and complete enough passes to prevent Tri-City Christian from devoting its entire defense to Stewart.

Sophomore Isaac Maisonet caught six passes for 43 yards and a touchdown last week. Liam Dailey supplied the Knights’ longest reception with a 45-yard gain.

Maisonet also recovered two fumbles, while Cahlil Martinez returned another Hamilton fumble for a touchdown. Foothills Christian finished plus-three in turnovers and did not throw an interception.

That hidden-possession advantage ultimately separated two closely matched teams.

Friday could require something similar.

Tri-City Christian improved to 3-1 with a 31-30 home victory over Nuview Bridge. The Eagles previously defeated Saint Jeanne de Lestonnac Catholic 36-0 and Temecula Prep 26-20 before losing at Hamilton.

Their past three games have been decided by six, eight and one point.

Foothills Christian’s past two victories provide contrasting evidence of its development. The Knights dominated Orange Glen 41-7 and then proved their improvement could travel by defeating Hamilton.

Now two perfect situational records collide.

Foothills Christian is 2-0 in true road games. Tri-City Christian is 2-0 at home.

The home field might be the strongest argument for the Eagles. Cronkhite is also the game’s most versatile offensive player, and Foothills Christian remains vulnerable against a productive passing attack. Hamilton quarterback Jesaiah Daniels threw for 217 yards and three touchdowns last week, with two scores coming during the fourth quarter.

Tri-City Christian is good enough to produce a similar comeback if the Knights build another lead but fail to finish.

The common opponent still matters.

Tri-City lost by eight at Hamilton. Foothills Christian led the Bobcats 25-6 before surviving by five. The Knights also controlled the line of scrimmage, holding Hamilton to 47 rushing yards.

That performance suggests the Foothills Christian turnaround has advanced beyond beating the weakest teams on its schedule.

Stewart provides the most dependable formula in a close game: control possession, shorten the night and keep Cronkhite on the sideline. If Oleson avoids turnovers and the Knights contain the Eagles’ quarterback during the final possessions, their road winning streak can continue.

This should come down to the final conversion.

FEARLESS FORECASTER: FOOTHILLS CHRISTIAN 24, TRI-CITY CHRISTIAN 23.

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